Infectious Disease Data Analysis

Pandemic simulation: Currently, a new coronavirus is raging and is having a strong impact that forces us to change our life style. Also fresh in our minds are the H1N1 novel influenza in 2009 and Ebola in 2014. Because we have no immunity to these emerging viruses, we could not defend ourselves against them. So, we have a very high probability of becoming infected when we are exposed to these viruses. Mathematical models have been studied for a long time to predict the future spread of infectious diseases based on information such as the infectivity of the virus, but it is difficult to translate these predictions into concrete countermeasures due to Japan's complex geography and transportation system. We have built a virtual city on a supercomputer, in which more than one million agents with personal profiles (gender, age, occupation, family information, etc.) are placed, where trains run, companies, schools, supermarkets, parks, restaurants, etc. are built, and where the year's traffic can be monitored every minute. We are conducting research on agent-based simulations to evaluate the spread of infection and the effectiveness of countermeasures through simulation.

pandemicsimu.jpg

Risk assessment through exposure analysis: In With-Corona era, risk assessment at crowded events (so-called “mass gathering events”) is an important issue. When an infected person enters a stadium, whether the spread of infection occurs depends on the behavior of people in the stadium. We have modeled the human behavior patterns of people in different locations, assessed the risk of infection for each behavior. We can assess the effectiveness of each of concrete countermeasures such as the use of thermography to catch infected people before entering the stadium (symptomless patients will be allowed in), wearing masks, etc. A solution-oriented risk assessment study is being conducted as a collaborative research.